Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 0.164079 0.195135 0.231866 0.278901 0.338094 0.410864 5.082596e-01
2025-06-22 0.122404 0.158253 0.205325 0.272936 0.369725 0.506762 7.220268e-01
2025-06-29 0.091176 0.125937 0.175596 0.254122 0.379906 0.582499 9.539068e-01
2025-07-06 0.061902 0.089542 0.131460 0.202563 0.326530 0.547420 1.007272e+00
2025-07-13 0.050316 0.076612 0.119266 0.197730 0.349071 0.654639 1.405214e+00
2025-07-20 0.042880 0.068591 0.113122 0.201984 0.392329 0.832389 2.140135e+00
2025-07-27 0.037455 0.062776 0.109484 0.210490 0.451334 1.095033 3.475281e+00
2025-08-03 0.032637 0.057024 0.104648 0.215606 0.508882 1.416017 5.670877e+00
2025-08-10 0.027850 0.050353 0.096425 0.210803 0.541745 1.712568 8.671150e+00
2025-08-17 0.023578 0.043859 0.087063 0.200319 0.555209 1.975754 1.265848e+01
2025-08-24 0.020827 0.039940 0.082451 0.200790 0.606763 2.488268 2.168800e+01
2025-08-31 0.018601 0.036711 0.078676 0.202518 0.667655 3.182092 3.984568e+01
2025-09-07 0.016678 0.033951 0.075802 0.207590 0.756801 4.335029 8.996100e+01
2025-09-14 0.014991 0.031407 0.072886 0.211898 0.854207 5.951088 2.330005e+02
2025-09-21 0.013145 0.028144 0.067272 0.204892 0.895453 7.371823 5.516741e+02
2025-09-28 0.010659 0.022924 0.055132 0.169567 0.753979 6.440373 5.655835e+02
2025-10-05 0.009644 0.021196 0.052525 0.169518 0.821874 8.502936 1.952812e+03
2025-10-12 0.008952 0.020162 0.051697 0.176433 0.948822 12.552016 1.623703e+04
2025-10-19 0.008409 0.019417 0.051573 0.186692 1.124496 19.919049 1.333323e+06
2025-10-26 0.007846 0.018518 0.050751 0.193790 1.298437 31.038599 NaN
2025-11-02 0.007175 0.017207 0.048259 0.191793 1.395229 42.866216 NaN
2025-11-09 0.006493 0.015756 0.044964 0.184218 1.428857 54.103254 NaN
2025-11-16 0.006041 0.014901 0.043551 0.186151 1.582162 82.612622 NaN